Description of Train and Test Data¶
- Simple test-train split.
- Train data from 2017.
- Test data from 2018.
- Calendar heatmap graphic.
- MAE vs. MSE
- MAPE vs. sMAPE
- day-night vs day-only
Preprocess & Feature Selection¶
- What features are useful?
- Computed time-of-day and time-of-year features.
- Training with day-night vs day-only.
Empirical Learning Curve¶
- Error vs amount of training data used.
- Linear regression vs. Random Forest vs. GBTs.
Reference Time vs Forecast Time¶
- Error for each (reftime, forecast time) pair.